I’ll put these questions to you. If you’ve got the figures there, you can provide them; if not, please take them on notice. How many non‑visa holders are currently in Australia, excluding bridging visas? So how many unlawful non‑citizens do you think are in Australia at the moment?
Respondent
We published an estimate of that figure. I think it’s around 77,000 or 78,000. I’ll get a colleague to correct me if that’s off.
Senator Scarr
Okay. How do you come up with that estimate?
Respondent
Teams look at instances of visas expiring and match that with things like death data, and they also do sampling to come up with the figure.
Senator Scarr
Okay, so it’s not possible to come up with a definitive figure because people might pass away…
Respondent
There is a large cohort—what you might call historical circumstances—where it may be decades since they arrived in Australia. Some of it even relates to changes in people’s lawful status over time, going back to different circumstances for UK citizens a very long time ago. Papua New Guinea too.
Senator Scarr
So that figure—one area, Mr Willard, where I’ve seen competing reports—is in relation to people who were here under the PALM visa scheme, who have left their employer for whatever reason. It might be because of worker exploitation. And there are differing estimates as to the number of former PALM workers who are potentially somewhere in the country but no longer on their current visa. How do you estimate that cohort?
Respondent
I’ll take that figure on notice. I know there are figures on disengagement, which is different from a visa expiring, and I know as well that our compliance approach takes into account circumstances where there could be exploitation.
Senator Scarr
In terms of that 77,000 estimate, do you have any breakdown of the visa subclasses those non‑visa holders were last on—visitor visas, student visas? Do you go to that level of granularity?
Respondent
I’ll take that on notice.
Senator Scarr
In terms of your breakdown of bridging visa statistics, to what extent can you break that down for us in terms of the different cohorts on bridging visas?
Respondent
In the interests of time, I can give you what I have in front of me, which is the Bridging Visa A, B and C cohorts. That’s the vast majority of bridging visa holders. So looking at that: students are at 107,000; families at 86,700—so 87,000; onshore protection, as I said earlier, 77,000; and skills at 46,500. Those are the largest cohorts. There are other cohorts as well.
Senator Scarr
Okay. And what about Bridging Visa E—BVE—holders in Australia? As at 30 September 2025, there were 8,120. Do you have a more up‑to‑date figure, and can you break that down into subclasses 050 and 051?
Respondent
Is that just total bridging visas, Senator—just in general?
Senator Scarr
Yes. And then, if you can, break it down into the two subclasses.
Respondent
I have the BVE numbers, but broken down by UMEs and non‑UMEs. So for Bridging Visa subclasses 050 and 051, there were 18,784. And for BVEs, subclass 050 for UMEs, there were 6,356.
Senator Scarr
So I’m trying to reconcile this. The last report online said there were 8,128 UME/BVE holders in Australia—that was the last published report. So in terms of the figures you’ve just given me, what am I comparing that to? I know this is like a second language to you.
Respondent
Those were the figures at 30 November 2025. Which figures did you have, Senator?
Senator Scarr
As at 30 September 2025, I had 8,128 BVE holders. Maybe I misread it. Do you know the figure I’m referring to—the report as at 30 September? Can I move on to ministerial interventions? How many cases are currently before the Minister for determination in terms of ministerial interventions?
Respondent
Senator, while Michael and Michael find their data, it might be helpful to note that we have about five different ministerial intervention powers, so we don’t tend to accumulate them all. We don’t have an aggregate number. We break them down—those relevant to immigration compliance seeking a bar lift or related to detention, and then others.
Senator Scarr
So can you just give me the breakdown?
Respondent
I have the numbers referred to a minister; I can give you those. For this financial year so far, to 30 November:
– Section 195A, which is the Minister’s power to grant a visa to an unlawful non‑citizen: 158.
How many years back would you like?
Senator Scarr
Give me those figures first, and then we’ll work out where to go from there.
Respondent
For Section 197AB, which is the power to place someone in residence determination: 27 for the same period.
For Section 351, substituting a tribunal decision: 255 for that same time period, referred to a minister.
Senator Scarr
Okay.
Respondent
I might take my element on notice.
Senator Scarr
Okay. What about under Section 501J?
Respondent
There have been zero.
Senator Scarr
417?
Respondent
It was repealed back in October 2024.
Senator Scarr
Are there any outstanding 417s to be processed?
Respondent
They’ve all been moved under 351, so they’ll be considered under that.
Senator Scarr
48B?
Respondent
I’ll take that on notice. I do have some figures on 48B, Senator: 12 this year to date.
Senator Scarr
So those are the numbers that have been referred. Do you have any that were referred in a prior financial year and are still before the Minister, or have they all been dealt with?
Respondent
I don’t have the breakdown of the year of referral versus the year of decision. I can give you the outcomes based on year, if you’d like.
Senator Scarr
Okay, if you can do that.
Respondent
So for 195A: 57 ministerial interventions from the 158 referred.
For 197AB: fewer than five interventions from the 27 referred.
Senator Scarr
Yep.
Respondent
For 351: 157 interventions from the 255 referred that year.
I should note some decisions may relate to referrals from a previous year, but that gives a linear order.
Senator Scarr
If you can take on notice whether you can provide the numbers for the previous financial year as well, that would be helpful. Just in relation to the 351s: do you have numbers for how many were granted under Minister Burke and how many under Minister O’Neil? Or do you calculate based on time periods?
Respondent
Generally, the assistant ministers make many of these decisions. It’s a process of discussion between officers to determine which cases go where.
Senator Scarr
I’m just trying to get through as many questions as I can. Can I move to onshore protection visas quickly? I think, Mr Willard, you gave me the figures as at 30 November 2025, which was the last tabled report. Do you have any data on how many were lodged in December or January? Do you have the lodgement figures for those calendar months?
Respondent
I have November.
Senator Scarr
Do you have anything later than November?
Respondent
Only November.
Senator Scarr
So November’s report has the country‑of‑origin data. I put a question on notice—I’m very judicious about that—and I asked for grant rates by country of origin. I haven’t received a response yet. Do you track that data?
Respondent
We do have that data, Senator. We’ll chase up the question for you.
Senator Scarr
Please chase that up. One of the issues, Secretary, is that there are particular countries where the grant rates are extremely low. Some countries, as you’d expect—Afghanistan, Iran—have high grant rates. But others have very low rates. For example, in my question on notice, from 1 July to 30 November 2025, there were approximately 77 appeals from people from Vanuatu, and one was successful. I don’t know how many applications the department rejected in the first instance, but that is a very low success rate. Ireland, Taiwan, and the Republic of Korea are similar—either 0% or 0.1%. What do you practically do to manage this issue, where people are making claims from countries where, based on past consideration, there is nearly a 0% chance of success? How do you manage that?
Respondent
One of the considerations is deciding cases more quickly. When we look at the cohorts we can decide more quickly, we look at factors such as the historic success rate for those cohorts. Typically, if people have genuine claims, they are more complex to deal with.
Senator Scarr
How many of these claimants are actually represented by a registered migration agent or someone assisting them with the application?
Respondent
I would expect it to be fairly similar to the representation rates we see in merits and judicial review processes. But we’ll take that on notice.
