The Centre for Population within the Department of Treasury has released the 2025 Population Statement.
The Centre for Population referred to: ‘considerable uncertainty in the outlook for departures’. It also stated: ‘migrants on temporary visas are departing Australia at lower rates than in the past’.
Senator Scarr said: “The Government’s own agency that provides key analysis of population growth now lacks confidence in making population forecasts because of the Labor Government’s immigration policy failures. This is an extraordinary situation. It underlines the failure of the Labor Government to manage the orderly departure of temporary visa holders who have come to the end of their stay.”
Senator Scarr said that the issue with respect to departure rates had also been raised by the ABS when it released the final figures for net overseas migration for the year ended 30 June 2025.
“One of the main issues that the ABS referred to in their announcement was that the rate of departures is 15% lower than it was in 2018-19. Now we have the Centre for Population saying it is impacting their ability to forecast population growth. How can the government undertake effective migration planning when you have this degree of uncertainty?”.
Senator Scarr specifically referred to the increase in the number of failed onshore asylum seekers and failed student visa applicants who are still onshore.
Senator Scarr said: “The Opposition has consistently raised this issue of failed onshore asylum seekers remaining in Australia. This number has increased by 45% in the last three years. It is not sustainable. As the Centre for Population notes in its statement, applying for a protection visa with a very low chance of success has allowed some migrants to extend their time in Australia.”
Senator Scarr said: “This is a ridiculous situation. The Administrative Review Tribunal is being overwhelmed by these cases. Two and a half years ago, there were 2,278 cases. That has now exploded to the 46,000 number. It has gone from being 3% of the ART’s caseload to 38% of the ART’s caseload. Based on the current rate of processing, it will take approximately four years to determine just the current cases on hand. It is not sustainable. Where is the Labor Government’s strategy to manage this issue?”
Senator Scarr said that these issues are linked to the number of Bridging Visas on issue.
Senator Scarr said: “The failure of the Labor Government to manage migration policy is reflected in the number of bridging visas on issue. There has been an unsustainable increase in the number of bridging visas.”
“Bridging visas are issued to provide time for a person’s immigration status and visa application to be resolved. As at 31 October 2024, there were 402,000 bridging visas on issue. On 30 June 2019, the figure was 180,000. The number of bridging visas has more than doubled in five years. It is a sign the system is not coping. It is a sign that the Labor Government is failing to properly manage migration policy.”
