The latest population figures show net overseas migration is back at the same trend that it was at prior to the covid pandemic. But the continued growth in population is a cause for concern for the Coalition, which wants further reductions in migration. Paul Scarr is The Shadow Minister for Immigration, Citizenship and Multicultural Affairs, and he joins me now. Paul Scarr, thanks for joining us on Afternoon Briefing.
Senator Scarr
Good to be with you. Melissa.
Melissa Clarke
So Paul, the latest data from the ABS. It looks at the figures, year to year ending, March 2025. It shows net overseas migration has fallen back to the pre covid trend, so not exactly the same level, but at the long term trend that it was and that over the last 12 months, it’s dropped by 178,000 people. How much further do you want it to fall?
Senator Scarr
Well, with due respect, whilst I agree with you that, of course, there have been falls year on year, over the last few years. I’m not sure it’s accurate to say that it’s in accordance with the long term trend pre the covid pandemic. What we saw before the covid pandemic was net overseas migration on average for the five years before the pandemic of 216,000, and in fact, if you extrapolate back a further five years, you’ve got that 216,000. The figure you refer to, for the year ending 31 March 2025 was still at over 315,000 so that’s 100,000 still higher than that 216,000 average before the pandemic and one of the important points I want to make here is when the government released its permanent migration intake, it released three sentences. There was no narrative, there was no explanation, there was no indication of long term planning as to how the government is going to manage the policy settings to get that figure down to those pre covid 19 pandemic levels.
Melissa Clarke
Yeah, let’s go to that. Because certainly where we are now with the 315,000 a year level is above what it was before covid. As a proportion of the population, it’s on that trend of increasing by around, I think, 1.6 which is sort of where we had been tracking. But that also depends on whether or not you think that’s the right policy setting. Should we be having a gradual increase? So I think we can agree on the big picture. The question is, really, where do you want it to go from this point and yeah, I take your point that the government didn’t really release much detail on its own plans, Tony Burke did release a very short statement simply saying the intake would be the same as the previous year, 185,000 and didn’t really go into any more detail than that. But, does that leave the Coalition any clearer about where you would want to make cuts to the level of migration that we’re seeing because there’s only so many cohorts that you can pick from if you are wanting to bring the numbers down further.
Senator Scarr
Yeah, I’d make two points in relation to those comments. The first is, you’re absolutely right. If we’re talking about numbers, I think it is incumbent upon the Opposition when it’s developing its policy to be able to answer the question – what are the different cohorts? How do you come up with this number? What percentage of it is family reunion? What percentage of it is skills, etc, etc? That’s an obvious question. Obviously, that’s part of our policy making process. Second point I’d really like to make is this – that we’re talking about trends. In 2014, Australia built 219,000 new dwellings. That’s when the population was 3 million lower. 2024, when net overseas migration was above 400,000, we built 177,000 dwellings. So there’s a real disconnect there in terms of net overseas migration levels and the supply of housing. That is a really important issue, and I think it’s one of the reasons why we’re having this debate.
Melissa Clarke
The drop that we’re seeing is largely coming from fewer international students and obviously that’s looking at temporary migration figures, and that’s really where we see a lot of the year to year change. You know, when it comes to net overseas migration, we’re also seeing people moving from one category to another, from a temporary arrival here to a position here. Do you see the crunch coming from the international student cohort. Is that really the driver of the crunch we’re seeing in the housing market, or is it the supply side, and is that where we should be focusing our attention when we look at strains and stresses on infrastructure and housing?
Senator Scarr
Well, I think it’s multifaceted. We need to be looking at our housing supply and it really is critical, and a major factor in terms of housing supply is cost. So, where my office is located, at Springfield, I know there’s capacity to build more high density housing, but the issue is you can’t build it at a cost that you can sell it out with a margin. So, that’s a material issue, supply chain issue, and also a skills issue in terms of having the labour market force able to engage in that level of construction. So that’s a major issue. Second point I’d want to make is we must always remember when we’re talking about net overseas migration, we’re talking about arrivals and departures. So, both sides of the equation have to be considered. We have seen a real increase in terms of people on various visa classes making, say, for example, onshore asylum applications and there’s now a backlog of about 100,000 people in Australia who’ve made onshore asylum applications. They’ve failed in terms of those applications, but they’re still onshore. So, that’s also an issue. You also have the issue of people doing visa hopping, so moving between different visas in order to lengthen their stay in Australia. So this is a very complicated area.
Melissa Clarke
It’s a long running issue, isn’t it? Because particularly that issue of arriving in Australia on one visa, claiming asylum at that point and then running through often very long appeals processes is one that is being grappled with by successive governments.
Senator Scarr
Oh, many, many of these issues are long standing, and that has to be recognised, and that adds to the complexity, and that’s the importance of the debate. When we’re engaging in this debate, it needs to be considered and measured and evidence based.
Melissa Clarke
Now I want to ask you about Andrew Hastie, your colleague, Liberal backbencher in WA. Sorry, he’s not on the backbench. He’s got a Shadow Portfolio. He has had a couple of social media posts that have drawn a bit of attention this week, and one of them has been about migration levels. You know, he’s calling for the Immigration rate to come down. But amongst his comments was a line where he said that, you know, we’re starting to feel like strangers in our own home. Now, we spoke to Allegra Spender, the Independent MP yesterday, and she said that those comments really hark back to the language of English white nationalists, and that Andrew Hastie should be more careful in his choice of words. Do you agree with her?
Senator Scarr
Look, I think it’s a bit of a long bow, with all due respect to Allegra, to try and draw draw some sort of connection between Andrew Hastie’s passionate advocacy for his local community, and in particular for young people struggling to buy their first home, and to try and draw some distinction or connection to a speech that was given in the 1960s in a totally different context. So, I don’t think that’s a particularly fair characterization in my view.
Melissa Clarke
You’ve certainly called for a really nuanced debate when we’re talking about issues of immigration, and we’ve seen some of your colleagues like Andrew Hastie and Jacinta Nampijinpa Price, they’ve been much more forthright. I think bold is how Andrew Hastie put it. Would you prefer if they were a little more nuanced? Because clearly the language does prick the ears and cause concern to some like Allegra Spender, who said, for her, as someone with a migrant background, she was quite distressed by some of that language.
Senator Scarr
Look, I think it’s it’s up to all colleagues as to how they make their arguments, how they express themselves. From my perspective, I like to adopt the approach which I’ve been adopting in this discussion with you and these topics are very complicated. I think one of the things about immigration is a lot of people feel these issues personally because of their backgrounds, etc. So, I think we really need to be cognizant of that.
Melissa Clarke
Now, can I just ask you, with your Multicultural Affairs hat on. We’ve had this week, the federal government formally recognize a Palestinian State and you know, the ongoing war in Gaza has, at times, strained social cohesion here in Australia. So, can I ask how you’ve observed the response from the community here in Australia to this formal declaration from the government this week?
Senator Scarr
I think it’s fair to say that there are very strong feelings across the community in relation to this issue and I, as a Senator for Queensland, representing all Queenslanders. I respect those feelings, and from my perspective, I simply want to see peace in relation to the position in the Middle East, in relation the position in Gaza. I want to see those poor hostages released and some sort of long term solution where two states can exist side by side, behind secure borders, which are acknowledged by each and we can actually move forward in a sustainable way, in peace.
Melissa Clarke
Do you think the federal government gave people time to absorb this fairly significant change in foreign policy?
Senator Scarr
Perhaps not. I think the bigger issue, from my perspective and from the Coalition’s perspective, is when you make an announcement like this, how do you justify it on the basis that the two parties who were essentially impacted aren’t at the negotiating table, engaging in the discussions themselves, in terms of making final decisions, with respect to issues like borders, mutual assurances of security, and you’ve got the overlying issue with respect to Hamas still having the position it holds in Gaza. So, I think there’s some real serious questions to be asked in relation to the government’s policy position.
Melissa Clarke
Well, look, I think it’s fairly certain that we will keep talking about them, because there’s no doubt this issue still has a very long way to run. But thank you for giving me your thoughts and for going through the complexities of the Immigration debate with us. I really appreciate it. Thank you, Paul Scarr.
Senator Scarr
And best of luck for the Brisbane Lions tomorrow, hey.
Melissa Clarke
No, as a Geelong Supporter, I cannot agree with that. That’s the partisanship that will really come through in the next couple of days! All right, thanks, Paul Scarr, we’ll leave it there.
